5 Numbers That Tell You Where the Fall Market Actually Stands

We spent most of the summer calling this a "balanced" market. Heading into fall, the numbers are telling a slightly different story, and it depends a lot on where in Puget Sound you're looking. Here's what's actually happening county by county, and what it means whether you're buying or selling this fall.

1. King County Has Officially Tipped Into Buyer Territory

Seattle inventory has climbed above four months for the first time since January 2012. That's a meaningful marker. Anything above four months is generally considered a buyer's market, and we haven't been here in over a decade. Median home prices in Seattle are down roughly 5% year over year, sitting around $850,000, with homes taking a median of about three weeks to sell.

This doesn't mean prices are collapsing. Sellers are still averaging right around full asking price. It means the extreme leverage sellers have held for years has genuinely shifted, and buyers in King County have more room to negotiate than they've had in a long time.

2. Pierce County Is Still Genuinely Balanced

Pierce tells a calmer story. Inventory sits around three months, prices are actually up slightly year over year, and homes are moving in about three weeks with sellers getting close to full asking price. If King County's shift has you nervous about timing a purchase or sale, Pierce is a good reminder that not every part of the region is moving the same direction at the same speed.

3. Snohomish County Has More Inventory, But Prices Are Adjusting

Snohomish has seen a sharp jump in available listings compared to a year ago, and that extra supply is showing up in price. Snohomish prices are down more than any other major Puget Sound county this year, even though homes are still selling in around three weeks. That combination, more inventory and faster price adjustment, but still solid sales pace, suggests price sensitivity rather than a lack of buyer interest.

4. Thurston County Remains the Region's Steady Performer

South of Tacoma, Thurston County continues to hold up best among the counties we track, with prices up several percent year over year and inventory still under three and a half months. It's benefiting from relative affordability compared to King and Snohomish, and buyers priced out further north are increasingly looking here.

5. Mortgage Rates Are Roughly Flat, Not Falling

The national average 30-year fixed rate is sitting a bit above where it was a year ago. If you've been waiting for a significant rate drop before making a move, that wait hasn't paid off so far this year. Buyers making decisions based on today's rate, rather than a hoped-for future rate, are the ones actually moving forward.

What This Means Heading Into Fall

The short version: the "balanced market" label still fits most of the region, but King County has genuinely crossed into buyer's market territory while Pierce, Snohomish, and Thurston remain closer to even footing. If you're selling in King County, pricing accurately and being realistic about negotiation matters more than it did a year ago. If you're buying anywhere in the region, this is one of the more buyer-friendly stretches we've seen in years, especially closer to Seattle.

Want to know exactly what these numbers mean for your specific neighborhood or price range? Let's dig into the local data together before you make a move either direction.

Meri Person Weichert, Realtors® – Pillar Northwest 📞 (206) 795-9217 | ✉️ Meri@pillarnorthwest.com Serving Seattle • Bellevue • Tacoma • Everett • and Beyond